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HENCH’S HARDBALL

You Down with OPS?

6:20: For the last few weeks I have been prefacing or punctuating my conversations with fellow citizens of Red Sox Nation with the question, "How the hell are we still in first place?"

Sadly, it seems only a matter of time - hours perhaps - before I will no longer be able to take solace in that odd shelter of rhetorical incredulity.

Why are the Sox sliding? Why do they stand a 50-50 chance of losing games in which they allow three runs? Could it be because night in and night out the majority of their lineup is comprised of below-average hitters? No, this is not the classic Hench pessimistic hyperbole. Just the facts.

First, let's all just agree that on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) is the best statistical measure of offensive value. It may have a nouveau feel to it in its fashionable infancy, but this stat is built to last.

The American League average OPS is .746. With Manny belly-flopping in the minors, the Sox regularly field a lineup with five or six guys below the league OPS average. Rickey Henderson (.720), Trot Nixon (.735), Jason Varitek (.730), Jose Offerman (.653), Tony Clark (.563, wow!) and Carlos Baerga (.718) are all looking up at the league average. When over half your lineup is below average it helps explain why you've lost four games in interleague play in which you've allowed three or fewer runs.

And, as you no doubt have noticed, one of our handful of hitters who is actually above the league-average OPS, Brian Daubach (.821), is completely lost at the plate. After whiffing four times the night before, Dauby comes in against Trevor Hoffman and takes two 89-mile-an-hour fastballs right down the middle before dutifully fanning on the changeup that must have been in his head when he went to the bat rack.

This leaves us with Nomar (.892), Shea (.856) and Johnny Damon (.851) to carry the entire load. Imagine how awesome Nomar might be if he ever got to swing at 2-0 or 3-1 pitches. As it is, he almost always puts the first pitch in play or waves feebly at it with a three-quarter swing as he realizes it's in the dirt.

Now let's look at the Actual Best Team Money Can Buy. Avert your eyes if you scare easy. Jason Giambi, yeah, the same guy Yankee fans booed in April, leads the league in OPS at 1.035. Alfonso Soriano (.930), Robin Ventura (.910) and Bernie Williams (.902) are all in the top 13. Jorge Posada (.843), Derek Jeter (.801), Nick Johnson (.770) and John Vander Wal (.753) are all above average. That's four elite hitters, six in the top 40 and eight above average. No wonder the apoplexy in the Bronx over Rondell White's slow start. They better get Cliff Floyd or Vlad Guerrero right quick.

Looking at these horribly unbalanced numbers, the obvious question now is, "How the hell were we in first place for so long?"    Hardball



Wild Card Wannabees

AL Wild

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GB

Oakland

46

36

---

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45

37

1.0

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44

39

2.5

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42

38

3.0

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41

4.5

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L

GB

New York

51

31

---

Boston

45

37

6.0

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42

41

9.5

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38

46

14.0

Baltimore

36

45

15.0


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