AL CENTRAL

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

When the White Sox were in the process of winning the World Series, commentators heaped praise on Kenny Williams’s master plan and Ozzie Guillen’s execution of SmartBall. A new world order was on the horizon, where new-fangled analysis based on getting on base and running conservatively was eschewed for the time-honored baseball tradition of doing things the John McGraw way, without those pesky walks.

However, the 2005 White Sox won because they hit 200 home runs, covering for Ozzie’s celebration of offensive deficiency, while leading the American League in run prevention. Just two years later, they stopped preventing the other team from scoring and fell to fourth place. SmartBall indeed.

For the upcoming season, the White Sox decided that John Garland’s 200 innings of above-averageness and the balance of their minor league system (when in doubt, trade Gio Gonzalez) was worth giving up to slightly upgrade. They picked up Orlando Cabrera from the Angels to help a bit with the run-prevention and bunting stuff that Ozzie loves in exchange for Garland. The kids went over to Billy Beane’s A’s for Nick Swisher, who can’t be hidden on the field considering Kaptain Konerko is at first and Jim Thome’s iron glove is relegated to the bench. The obstacle is Ozzie though, as he would likely push Swisher to the bottom third of the lineup to save himself from watching Swisher strike out in the same inning as Thome.

Swisher is the litmus test for the White Sox rebuilding effort. Williams emptied the farm to get him, and he extended Guillen to use him correctly. If they don’t rebound in the AL Central and become competitive quickly, the SmartMoney will have both Williams and Guillen watching the White Sox play from a sports bar by 2009.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

The holders of the AL Central crown have decided the best plan for repeating is to stand pat, riding the continued development of Mark Shapiro’s nascent Empire on the Cuyahoga, with the only major waves made this offseason being overtures to the Pirates to bring in Jason Bay. In 2007, the Indians tasted some good developmental fruits from their organizational tree. Fausto Carmona became one of the 10 best starters in the American League, and Franklyn Gutierrez showed why the Indians felt him worth Milton Bradley’s crazy self. Grady Sizemore is a star, and Jhonny Peralta rebounded very nicely after a tough sophomore year. Even Asdrubal Cabrera and Ryan Garko stepped in from the Cleveland system to make some pretty important contributions to the team that tied the Red Sox for the best record in baseball.

Unfortunately, before the Clevelanders make a run at the reigning AL Romans, they have more obstacles than any division winner in the AL. First, they have to deal with the Detroit Tigers, no small enemy. Then, they have internal questions centering around the pitching staff. Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook have to solidify the rotation if the Indians are going to make some noise come playoff time. The bullpen has to continue to be like last year’s decent crew, which means breaking the bi-annual schizophrenic show they’ve suffered this decade of being good then bad. I’m looking at you, Bob Wickman (Joe Borowski)! Finally, in case there is some drop off from their youngs (young players are not really known for their consistency), Travis Hafner must go back to his ball-mashing self, rather than being merely scary.

Things are sunny in Cleveland for the first time since John Hart was the GM; they are good enough to walk into the playoffs, no matter what the Tigers say.

DETROIT TIGERS

The Tigers made the biggest splash of the offseason in an attempt to unseat the Indians at the top of the Central by trading top prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin (among others) to Florida for Miguel Cabrera’s prodigious, Manny-Ramirez-like bat, and Dontrelle Willis. They also acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves and Jacque Jones from the Cubs in an effort to solidify the AL’s second ranked offense. In effect, Cabrera and Renteria replace Brandon Inge and Sean Casey, with incumbent shortstop Carlos Guillen moving to first base, and Jones sharing time with Marcus Thames in left.

From a talent standpoint, the Tigers look stronger than last year, especially since Casey is nearing the end and Inge’s only offensive talent is hitting home runs. The problem? The Tigers last year were none-too-good at preventing their opposition from touching the old hexagon. Detroit ranked ninth in runs allowed in the AL while playing in the same division as the AL’s bottom three run scoring squads (Kansas City, Minnesota, and Chicago). Dontrelle Willis can probably be counted on to be at least as good as Andrew Miller was last year, but Willis is one of those pitchers whose perceived value is higher than his actual value due to ballpark and wacky delivery. Jeremy Bonderman has some pretty sexy peripherals, and youth on his side, but he is working on a career that is five seasons long and he has only been an above average pitcher once (2006). The only starting pitcher that can really be expected to rock the proverbial party is Justin Verlander … a tall order for someone entering his 25th year on earth. The salt in the wound is that while Renteria is an upgrade over Guillen at short, Guillen is relatively inexperienced at first, and Miggy the Butcher replaces Inge’s competence at the hot corner. The Tigers are even money to have a destructive offense, especially if Curtis Granderson continues to develop into an awesome enough player to cover Magglio Ordonez’s regression to humanity. A shaky-at-best pitching staff, with weaker defense and a really good Cleveland team should again relegate Detroit to second place.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Since the Royals were expanded into existence, the franchise has experienced something newer teams typically struggle with: A rich history and dedicated fan base. Since the 1990s, the success and the fan base have both eroded due to the inability to field a consistent, winning team.

If we look at professional soccer across the pond, Local English ownership in the Premier League is becoming increasingly rare, as rich men are buying teams as playthings. Even Americans are getting into the act, with Liverpool (England’s most successful club) being dually owned by Rangers owner Tom Hicks and Montreal Canadians owner George Gillett, and Manchester United (England’s most famous squad) being owned by the Glazer family who also own the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So why hasn’t this type of interest taken shape in MLB franchises?

Many of the men buying these athletic assets don’t come from soccer-crazed nations, and there is a lot of money to be made in the United States with the franchise as a focal point. Even if a team lost money, many of these clubs are operating at losses (see Ramon Abromovich since he bought Chelsea in 2003). Major League Baseball should be reaching out to these gentlemen to get a deep-pocketed owner who isn’t afraid to spend in the markets they wish to grow (like Kansas City). Instead, they have them essentially be wards of the state under the tutelage of David Glass, who will surely cackle when Alex Gordon comes up in line to ask for gruel in a few seasons. Refusing to seek out good and dedicated owners rather than MLB cronies has done more damage to baseball fans than turning a blind eye to PED use. Meanwhile, until there is a significant ownership change in places like Kansas City, they will be perennial weak sisters in Baseball’s Most Interesting Division, with the occasional season like 2003 to raise hopes just enough for them to be crushed by Wal-Mart’s own Mr. Bumble.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Unfortunately for Twins fans out there, this offseason has been about how much swag they can get for Johan Santana. Even more unfortunate is that new GM Bill Smith waited until the last possible second to trade him, accepting a middling offer from the Mets rather than better packages put together by Boston and the Yankees during the winter meetings. Now, it will certainly be a long summer in the Twin Cities. They return Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Mike Cuddyer to the lineup, but project to add Alexi Casilla, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe, Adam Everett, and Delmon Young to replace 2007 starters Luis Castillo, Nick Punto, Torii Hunter, Jason Bartlett, and Jason Tyner.

The problem with this strategy is that it made the offense worse. The 2007 composite line for the Twins Five was .268/.329/.379. Their replacements hit .259/.304/.380, which means the front office decided to get a slight amount of slugging at the expense of .025 points of on-base percentage and Matt Garza’s career. At least the Twins still have Punto in house if Lamb fails to be the first decent Twins third baseman since Cory Koskie was healthy.

With the Santana trade, the Twins ensured that they will not be competitive in the Central in 2008. However, because the trade didn’t fill any organizational holes (Pitchers Delois Guerra is far away from the majors, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey are fungible prospect types…outfielder Carlos Gomez doesn’t know the strike zone, and hasn’t ever hit for power), the Twins are unlikely to be competitive when they open their new ballpark in 2010. By waiting on Santana, and signing the players he signed, Smith essentially ceded the Central to his opponents for the next half decade.

AL WEST

LOS ANGELES ANGLES OF ANAHEIM

Of the teams that made the playoffs in the American League last year, the Angels were actually the most active this offseason, which says as much for the quality of talent available as anything else, considering Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman, and Mark Shapiro aren’t exactly known as sit-around-and-watch types.

After A-Rod, Jorge Posada, and Mike Lowell, Torii Hunter was the best offensive free agent on the market, and the Angels grabbed him for $90 million to help bolster an offense that was Vlad Guerrero and three hot weeks of Garrett Anderson. The problem is that Hunter just isn’t a very good hitter, and his glove is based more on reputation than skill now that he’s in his 30s, but last year’s insane Gary Matthews signing (5yrs/$55 million) necessitated getting some offensive production out of center field. Proof that baseball economics is a cruel joke: Hunter, who signed his contract at 32 years old, will be making $4 million more over the next two years than Guerrero.

For the price of Orlando Cabrera, the Angels brought in Jon Garland in his walk year. Garland isn’t an elite starter, but he slots in nicely with what is already one of the better rotations in the American League. If Jared Weaver can turn into a 180-inning pitcher, and Kelvim Escobar can stay healthy, Garland and John Lackey create a playoff rotation that can cover for a less than potent offense in a short series.

Mike Scioscia is one of the few managers out there that truly recognizes his team’s strengths and uses them to good effect. The Angels play small ball (and play it well) because they don’t have much power on their team, and lean heavily on the pitching staff because it’s pretty good. The talent the Angels have—and with the skill Scioscia has in using it—should help the team easily out-pace the rest of the West for their fourth division title in five years.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

It takes a bold man to recognize that what you have on your team just isn’t enough to compete... and Billy Beane is that bold man.

Beane has been adored and faced the predictable backlash due to that. This season will be the first time since 1999 that the A’s don’t have the talent on the major league roster to challenge for a playoff spot. Mainstays Nick Swisher, Danny Haren, and Mark Kotsay have been replaced by youngsters from these men’s new teams. Whereas Kotsay was a pure salary dump (he just can’t stay healthy and better to pay $5 million to have him play for Atlanta than on your own disabled list), Haren and Swisher’s paydays are yet to come, and the Diamondbacks and White Sox respectively paid a dear price for both pre-free agent players. There were also rumors this offseason that pitchers Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, and Huston Street would also be on the way out.

What remains is a mix of outsiders, like Emil Brown, the Old A’s, including those three pitchers, Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis, and Bobby Crosby, and the Future, which include Travis Buck, Daric Barton, and Kurt Suzuki. During this season and next, the Old A’s will continue to be filtered out, replaced with names like Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Cunningham, and Chris Carter. And that is just the young guys the team acquired this year, ignoring legitimate homegrown talent like James Simmons and Trevor Cahill.

The A’s will lose, and the usual suspects will sharpen their talons against Beane. However, a good number of the players returned in this winter’s trades are close to the major leagues, and the A’s should be on top of the division sooner than most teams that radically rebuild.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Every season there is a team that defies expectation and becomes competitive. Last year, the AL version was the Mariners, as they added 10 wins to their 2006 total, and had their first winning season in three.

The surprise year is dangerous for teams, as they need to figure out if the improvement is real or if there is a particularly mean-spirited regression to the mean coming in the future. Sometimes teams stand pat and pray that the improvement is real … these are usually young teams that don’t have the revenue to make a huge splash in the free agent pool. Sometimes teams tinker, adding pieces here and there to supplement the core that was successful the previous season. Sometimes, the team is emboldened and they make a huge splash in free agency or the trade markets, recognizing that their success would be fleeting were it not for bold moves. This latter approach is how the Tigers became competitive again.

Then other times you just say screw it and sign Carlos Silva for $12 million a year for four years.

TEXAS RANGERS

When the Rangers sent Mark Teixeira to the Braves last year for Jarrod Saltalamacchia (and some minor leaguers), they started the same rebuilding process that it seems like most Major League Baseball teams are fighting through in the post-strike era. While they have some youth, with Saltalamacchia being only 23, and second baseman Ian Kinsler 26, everyone else that should get significant playing time in the field is 27 or older, including newly acquired Josh Hamilton. In the rotation, Brandon McCarthy and old friend Kason Gabbard are both still in their mid-20s, but Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Jason Jennings are all over 30. The Rangers brass is going to find out this year that fans will abide bad and young, and good and old, but not bad and old.

Rather than tear down like the A’s did, the Orioles tried, and the Twins failed at … the Rangers ran in place, with their only notable offseason acquisitions being Hamilton, Milton Bradley’s crazy self, Ben Broussard, and Chris Shelton, which means you have Shelton, Broussard, Saltalamacchia, Gerald Laird, and Frank Catalanotto fighting for 1B/C/DH at bats while Hank Blalock can’t stay on the field, and half the time when he’s healthy, you wish he wasn’t. Even though it’s cliché, the Rangers didn’t do enough to improve their station, and only the A’s completely tearing themselves down is keeping the Texans from the cellar. But not even the youth movement on the Bay will save the Rangers from being the most yawn-inducing team in the AL.

PREDICTIONS:

AL EAST

Boston
New York
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland
Detroit (wild card)
Chicago
Kansas City
Minnesota

AL WEST

Anaheim
Seattle
Texas
Oakland

Endnote: Unless otherwise noted all statistics are from baseball-reference.com. All contract information taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.comBiography

-- Jeffrey Kuhn works in the exciting world of ticket distribution, which annoyingly distracts from being able to dedicate all of his life to sports nerdery. The Red Sox are his first love, with a good amount of obsession being paid to the New England Patriots, Boston Celtics, Rhode Island Rams, and Tottenham Hotspur. He writes for The House That Dewey Built occasionally.